TOKYO - Russia's detention of a Japanese journalist for spying allegation marks a fresh low in bilateral ties, and Moscow's hardline stance toward Tokyo is set to continue at least until the Ukraine war ends, according to foreign policy analysts.
The bilateral relationship, once vibrant through repeated summits between then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has significantly deteriorated with Moscow labeling Japan "unfriendly" for joining Western sanctions in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russia has taken measures drawing protests by Tokyo, most prominently Putin's first visit in August to one of the islands at the heart of a bilateral territorial dispute.
Yet, Japan has refrained from responding with strong measures, aside from enrolling in the Ukraine war-linked sanctions. Despite Putin's visit to Etorofu, Japan has not called back its ambassador in Moscow and continues to purchase liquefied natural gas imports from Russia.
Unlike one of her predecessors Fumio Kishida, who made an unannounced visit to Ukraine in March 2023 while prime minister to pledge support for the East European country under attack by Russia, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi appears to be cautious of irritating Moscow.
Her government sent a group of business leaders along with foreign and trade ministry officials to Russia in May to seek the "protection of Japanese corporate assets in the country."
In July, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi briefly spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Manila, calling him a "longtime acquaintance," in the first contact between the top diplomats of the two countries since the Ukraine war.
Japan apparently is fearful that taking steps to ramp up pressure on Russia will dash any hopes for an advance in territorial talks and that the interest of the resource-poor country's reliance on Russian energy resources would be hurt, the analysts said.
The analysts said Japan is hopeful that once the Ukraine war ends, relations with Russia will at least go back to the status it was before the full-scale invasion, paving the way for economic cooperation and possibly advances in territorial talks.
Japan's attitude stands in "contrast" with that of European countries, which largely take the view that as long as Putin remains in power, "there is no going back to the relationship as it was before," according to James Brown, a professor at Temple University in Japan and an expert on Japan-Russia relationship.
For the Japanese side, "the problem is the war and so, as long as if the war comes to an end, it seems to be the view of the Japanese government that they want to go back to how things were previously," he said.
But Russia has become more authoritarian and aggressive, highlighted by it starting the war in Ukraine, while bilateral contacts have been reduced, in part due to the coronavirus pandemic, Brown said.
"I think it's about time that Japan took a harder line and retaliated because weakness invites further Russian provocations," he said, including in response to the "hostage-taking" of a Japanese journalist.
Russia's security agency said on Oct. 13 it had detained a journalist with the Hokkaido Shimbun newspaper for conducting intelligence activities. It added that he was transported to Moscow and a local court approved his detention for two months.
A consular meeting with him has not been allowed even though a bilateral treaty provides for the right to consular access within four days of a person being taken into custody.
Taisuke Abiru, senior fellow at Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the year 2020 marked a "major turning point" in Russia's stance toward Japan with the constitutional amendment that bans the cession of territory.
"As a result, the room for compromise regarding the Northern Territories issue has been significantly reduced," he said, referring to the Japanese name of the Moscow-controlled islands off Hokkaido in northern Japan, called the Southern Kurils in Russia.
The main point of contention between the two countries has increasingly become national security, rather than territorial issues, as Japan strengthens its defense capabilities to deter China and North Korea, stirring caution in Russia over the Japanese forces' enhanced cooperation with the U.S. military, he said.
Abiru said closer ties between Russia and China, which increasingly share historical and security narratives against Japan, could also add to Tokyo's burden when looking to improve ties with Moscow, although it is important to also note that Russia remains cautious of being overly dependent on the Chinese market.
A delegation from the northeastern Chinese province of Heilongjiang visited Etorofu to conduct feasibility studies for joint projects with the Russian side earlier this month, drawing protest by Tokyo.
Recently, "China and Russia have criticized Japan's 'remilitarization' and 'new militarism' in joint statements and have been stepping up pressure on Japan by linking historical perceptions to security issues," Abiru said.
Amid the difficult circumstances, what Japan can do is to "pursue a tenacious diplomatic approach that balances the management of tensions with the pursuit of cooperation," such as in the energy sector, he said.
