TOKYO - A rare concerted parliamentary boycott by opposition forces prompted Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to reconsider pushing a contentious bill to reduce lower house seats through parliament, but the seemingly unified opposition still faces challenges of its own making.
Facing criticism for a high-handed approach to Diet affairs, Takaichi walked a fine line to resolve the parliamentary gridlock in a session that she had otherwise hoped would be a smooth ride after her coalition's sweeping election win in February.
In the end, she agreed to shelve the initial plan while trying not to be perceived as reneging on an agreement with junior coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party to legislate a bill that would cut 45 House of Representatives seats selected under proportional representation.
While Takaichi's decision may have provided relief to opposition parties desperate to block the seat-cut bill, it will likely offer them brief respite as the boycott -- seen by critics as a self-defensive strategy to buy time -- may backfire and cost them public support, with voters wanting politicians to swiftly address inflation risks amid the Middle East conflict, political analysts say.
With the prime minister so far avoiding a Diet session extension to achieve her policy goals, the developments also complicate future efforts to secure greater cooperation with opposition forces that are more aligned with the ruling coalition on conservative policy items, analysts added.
"The seat-cut bill is different from the other legislation because it had the effect of uniting virtually every opposition party against it," said Tadashi Mori, a professor of politics at Aichi Gakuin University.
"Once that bill was in the package, it was impossible to pass other legislation, and it became obvious to abandon it," he said of Takaichi's decision to compromise.
The proposed cuts to proportional list seats from the current 176 of the lower house's 465 would significantly reduce the opposition's already diminished numbers, while posing a minimal threat to Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party.
In the Feb. 8 general election, the LDP won 248 of the house's 289 single-seat districts, while securing 67 seats through proportional representation. Conversely, 42 of the Centrist Reform Alliance's 49 lower house seats were secured via proportional representation, as were 20 of the Democratic Party for the People's 28 seats and all 15 of the ultraconservative Sanseito party's seats in the lower chamber.
"Refusal to debate the bill was the sole tactic left when the opposition would lose more seats if an election were held tomorrow, and debating the seats bill would mean letting it pass the lower house," Masato Kamikubo, a professor of politics at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto, said of the boycott.
"It is a question of whether the opposition could continue to exist," he said.
Polls by Kyodo News suggest the public is split on the necessity of reducing lawmaker numbers, with 46.1 percent of respondents in a June survey agreeing there is a "need for it to be done quickly," compared to 49.1 percent who see no need to expedite the matter.
Jamming the wheels of parliament over self-preservation, however, has revised a familiar criticism -- that the opposition is unfit to govern. Ruling party lawmakers lambasted the boycott as self-interested, with one describing it as "outmoded and not fulfilling the people's expectations."
Takaichi's persistence -- and her inclination toward the JIP that came to her rescue when the LDP parted ways with its former longtime coalition partner last year -- could spark a change of heart among the DPP and Sanseito, which had been more open to cooperating on getting bills over the line in the House of Councillors where the ruling camp is a minority.
DPP head Yuichiro Tamaki told a recent TV program there is "no prospect" of his party joining the coalition if parliamentary affairs "cannot be run smoothly," while Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya has not discounted working with other parties to "unseat the JIP" in unified local elections next spring.
Aichi Gakuin's Mori said the DPP and Sanseito will find it "politically challenging" to cooperate with the coalition, while noting it may have been a JIP ploy to reel in a wayward LDP coalition partner that had been cozying up to other parties.
"If the LDP can't secure the DPP's cooperation and instead becomes too reliant on the JIP to get bills passed, it will make governing much harder," Mori said.
Dissatisfaction over Takaichi's approach to the opposition has begun to emerge publicly from figures within the LDP, too.
Junichi Ishii, the party's secretary general in the upper house who is seen as on poor terms with the prime minister, was pointed in his analysis during an internet program.
Acknowledging Takaichi's consistently robust support ratings in opinion polls, he said, "A long-running government will become possible if it can engage seriously with the opposition."
