TOKYO - A year after ties with China went into a tailspin over remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on how Japan might respond to a crisis over Taiwan, Tokyo should focus on enhancing relations with the United States and other like-minded states rather than bowing to pressure to win a short-term improvement in its relationship with its neighbor, analysts said.
As China continues to press the narrative in the international arena that the Takaichi government's defense buildup policy reflects rising "neo-militarism," Japan needs to prove it remains a peace-loving nation respecting freedom of expression and the rule of law, and that its defense plans are decided with transparency, they said.
Soon after taking office, Takaichi suggested in a House of Representatives committee meeting on Nov. 7 last year that an attack on Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island claimed by Beijing, or naval blockade could prompt a response by Japan's Self-Defense Forces to act in support of the United States.
Infuriated by the remarks, China has since unleashed a series of political and economic reprisals against Japan, including export restrictions on rare earths needed to manufacture various high-tech products. The tourism and entertainment industries have also been affected.
According to many analysts, China has sought to present Takaichi's remarks, in which she said an attack on Taiwan could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, as similar to rhetoric used by Japanese militarists in the past.
It claims Takaichi was threatening an "act of aggression" by suggesting Japan could carry out an armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
Communist-led China regards Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary, saying the issue is "at the core of China's core interests" and "a red line that must not be crossed."
Takaichi's Taiwan remarks stand out as past Japanese leaders maintained an ambiguous stance on how the country would respond to a crisis involving the island, apparently to avoid provoking China.
But the analysts argued that when making her remarks, Takaichi was referring to Japan potentially exercising the right to collective self-defense -- or to defend allies even when Japan itself is not directly attacked.
Under landmark security legislation that took effect in 2016, a survival-threatening situation is recognized when "an armed attack against a foreign country that has a close relationship with Japan occurs" and threatens Japan's survival.
While China has demanded that Takaichi retract her words, "From the content itself of Ms. Takaichi's remarks, there is absolutely nothing new being said," according to Katsuya Yamamoto, senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
"But the situation became distorted as views that she was suggesting Japan would be the first to use force in response to a Taiwan emergency have reached President Xi Jinping," he said.
"I do not think Ms. Takaichi should correct or retract her remarks, as they are not false...Simply bowing in response to China's attitude would be a bad move for Japan" without the guarantee that it would lead to improving ties, Yamamoto said.
"Fundamentally, the current trend regarding China's policy on Japan is something that has existed before Ms. Takaichi's statement, and that major trend will not change," he added.
With little expectation for achieving improvements in ties with China directly, Japan should instead focus on expanding its power by strengthening ties with like-minded countries, Yamamoto said.
"If Japan wants to make its voice heard by China, or to get China to properly pay attention and engage in a proper deal, unfortunately, Japan alone cannot achieve this," he said. "China only properly responds to powerful entities that have significant strength."
"From that perspective, it is indeed necessary for like-minded countries, or countries that share similar values, to come together and form a significant power so that they can have a relationship capable of dealing with China," he said.
On the economic front, bilateral trade continues and exchanges between businesspeople have seen some revival. Former Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, in his capacity as head of Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade, held talks with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in late September in Beijing.
But sources at Japan's Foreign Ministry remain doubtful that the recovery of interactions at the business level signals a thaw in ties or would directly lead to a resumption of political dialogue, with Xi's government remaining adamant that Takaichi retract the remarks.
The outlook for Takaichi and Xi to meet on the sidelines of international meetings, including the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China later this month, remains uncertain, the sources said.
China's narrative that Japan's defense buildup policy is a resurgence of wartime militarism also needs to be countered, analysts said, suggesting Japan stress that it has upheld measures for peace and democracy in the postwar era and that the current rise in defense outlays are exclusively for defense.
"Japan needs to say that we are not neglecting history but are thinking of preventing war, focusing on defense rather than military activities," Tomoko Ako, a professor at the University of Tokyo, said.
She expressed worries about political leaders in Japan appearing to push defense plans from above without public consensus or sufficient debate.
"We need to clearly say that we have civilian control and that we are not expanding defense industries without limits" but to defend ourselves at the minimum necessary level as a democracy, Ako said.
To give assurance to China and other countries, Japan should avoid looking as if "decisions are already being made at the top," she said, calling for the government to pay heed to discussions among the public.
