TOKYO - Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the White House in September for the first time in 11 years and met with U.S. President Donald Trump. Building on the "relationship of strategic stability" that was agreed at their May summit in Beijing, the two leaders agreed to a two-month extension of the trade truce halting tit-for-tat tariffs and export controls, pushing the deadline through the coming January.
U.S.-China relations are in a period of detente, but the goal is not reconciliation. Both countries are seeking to avoid confrontation for now, ease pressure on each other and prepare for the "post-detente" era.
In that sense, strategic stability and the extended trade truce do not define a permanent U.S.-China relationship; rather they reflect a detente based on a temporary convergence of interests.
Even so, China is steadily laying the groundwork. In late August, the National People's Congress Standing Committee approved revisions to the National Defense Mobilization Law, which took effect in October, to mobilize citizens in an emergency.
The revisions are intended to facilitate a rapid shift from peacetime to wartime footing and include provisions allowing the requisition of private assets during emergencies. They also include measures to mobilize personnel involved in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and drones.
China also tightened exit controls on Sept. 15. While Beijing designed these measures to prevent AI engineers and other specialists from leaving the country and stop the outflow of critical technologies, a key aim appears to be preventing high-net-worth individuals from accumulating overseas assets and curbing capital flight.
All these measures can be viewed as preparations for the "post-detente" era. Many believe Xi will begin a fourth term as Chinese Communist Party general secretary after the party congress in the fall of 2027.
His primary focus is the issue of Taiwan. During his visit to the White House, he called on the United States to oppose the island's independence.
The Trump administration approved a record $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan at the end of 2025, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, and long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS.
These weapons could suppress forces invading Taiwan or strike launch sites in mainland China. Even if China cannot stop an additional arms sale under consideration worth about $14 billion, it would presumably want to limit the weapons' capabilities.
In the past, the United States would have had no choice but to intervene if a contingency occurred after a detente. Today, however, uncertainty is growing. Globalization has hollowed out U.S. manufacturing, leaving the country without the formidable industrial base it possessed during World War II.
The political outlook is also troubling. The rise of the far left divides the world into "the persecutors" and "the persecuted," pressing ahead with political struggle in the name of justice. To anyone who lived through the Cultural Revolution, this brings to mind the true nature of the Communist Party.
Seeing a rival lacking cohesion, Xi is likely becoming even more convinced of his belief that "the East is rising and the West is declining," suggesting that China is on the rise while the United States is weakening.
Wu Junhua was born in Zhejiang Province, China, in 1960. She is a consulting fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. After studying at Fudan University, she moved to Japan and completed graduate studies at the University of Tokyo. She served as executive research director at the Japan Research Institute before taking her current post in October 2025. She specializes in U.S.-China relations and the Chinese economy and has written books including "China: Quiet Revolution."
