TOKYO - The United States and Iran have agreed on a memorandum to end their fighting. A senior U.S. official has said it will include a guarantee of long-term peace in the Middle East. As long as the agreement is implemented, it effectively commits the Trump administration to refraining from another attack on Iran, marking a significant breakthrough.
Under the memorandum, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, which it had effectively closed, while the U.S. military will lift its blockade of Iranian ports. The two sides will now enter a 60-day period of technical talks on the nuclear issue.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed at the end of February, but the country withstood fierce attacks by the United States and Israel and preserved its political system. The memorandum amounts to U.S. and Israeli recognition that the Islamic Republic has survived.
The memorandum is not expected to include what the United States had initially demanded -- the transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium to it, restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, and an end to support for pro-Iranian proxy forces.
Among Iran's demands, the immediate release of frozen assets and lifting of sanctions will also be discussed. Together with the postponement of nuclear talks, many of Iran's key demands seem to have been accepted, giving the impression that Tehran has prevailed through persistence.
With gasoline prices remaining high in the car-dependent United States and inflation again on an upward trend, Trump likely concluded that concessions were unavoidable ahead of the 250th anniversary of the country's independence on July 4 and the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Although crude oil prices surged due to the closure of the strait, they have recently remained below $100 per barrel. That is largely because countries have been drawing on strategic petroleum reserves and other measures, but some countries will begin to see depleted reserves.
If that happens, demand for crude oil will rise, possibly pushing oil prices even higher. Given the political calendar and economic conditions, Trump appears to have concluded that he could no longer afford to prolong the standoff with Iran.
Iran faced similar pressures. Anti-U.S. hard-liners are pushing back by demanding the immediate and full release of frozen assets and lifting of sanctions, but the domestic economy is in extremely difficult shape and public discontent is strong. It was a good time to explore a negotiated settlement.
Trump initially said the memorandum would be signed on June 14, his 80th birthday, but a signing ceremony was held later.
From Iran's perspective, by not signing the memorandum on the birthday of Trump, who attacked the country in June last year and this February while nuclear talks were continuing and drove many civilians to their deaths, Tehran made clear it would not hand Trump a symbolic political victory.
Iranians have demonstrated this tendency before. After the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, the hostages were released and allowed to leave the country moments after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as president and Jimmy Carter, with whom Iran had long been at odds, left office.
Israel could become an obstacle to implementation going forward. For long-term peace in the Middle East, it will be essential to calm the situation in Lebanon, where the Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah is based.
Even on June 14, when the United States and Iran agreed on the memorandum, the Israeli military continued its operations to eliminate Hezbollah. If Washington and Tehran move closer together, tensions between the United States and Israel could grow. The focus will now be on how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responds.
The biggest hurdle, nuclear talks, still lies ahead. Trump has left open the possibility of attacking Iran again if no agreement is reached, but Iran has also acquired leverage through its ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Reaching a compromise will likely take time, but a path now exists.
(The Japanese version of this story was released on June 15.)
(Kazuo Takahashi, professor emeritus at the Open University of Japan, was born in Kitakyushu. He graduated from Osaka University of Foreign Studies, now Osaka University, and completed graduate studies at Columbia University in the United States. He has written numerous books, including "Iran, America and Israel.")
