BEIJING - China identified two possible flight routes for its test-firing of a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine earlier this week, with the northern route passing over Japan, according to its advance notifications and expert analysis.
But the missile likely flew near the Philippines along the southern route on Monday, leaving Japan and other countries in the region to assess Beijing's intentions while stepping up vigilance against China.
Beijing has not revealed details of the launch, saying only that its navy successfully launched a "strategic missile" carrying a dummy warhead toward the high seas of the Pacific Ocean.
Hiroki Sonoda, a military analyst and former member of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, said one of the two routes China considered would have seen the missile launched off northern China near the Yellow Sea before arcing over Japan's exclusive economic zone.
The other path would have seen the missile launched east of China's Hainan Island in the South China Sea before passing near the Philippines, Sonoda said, citing prior notifications by Chinese maritime authorities.
A Japanese government source said the launch likely took place from the east of Hainan Island rather than from the northern route's Bohai Sea. Australian media have said the nuclear-capable missile flew over multiple Pacific nations and appears to have hit waters close to Tuvalu's EEZ.
Sonoda pointed out the latest launch, which followed China's test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean in September 2024, was aimed at "demonstrating the improvement in the country's sea-based strategic nuclear forces capabilities and its confidence."
On Sunday, Chinese authorities notified the Japan Coast Guard of four sea areas designated for possible falling space debris, including waters within Japan's EEZ in the Pacific south of Wakayama Prefecture. Beijing also imposed navigation restrictions in two areas of the Yellow Sea and east of Hainan Island from Monday through Wednesday.
The Japanese government source acknowledged that Tokyo had been alert to the possibility of a Chinese missile passing over Japan. Beijing is believed to have designated two of the four sea areas in preparation for the possible fall of missile booster debris.
Had the Chinese missile flown over Japan along the envisioned northern route, Japan would have activated its satellite-based J-Alert system to warn the public of a possible emergency, the source said, indicating the significant impact such a launch could have had.
The system enables authorities to swiftly send alerts regarding natural disasters or attacks on Japan directly to residents via television, smartphone and other devices.
Former Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said in an X post Tuesday that the latest Chinese missile test was "obvious harassment" and that Japan, the Philippines and the United States were apparently the intended targets.
After China's Defense Ministry notified Japan of the missile launch Monday morning, Tokyo urged Beijing to reconsider the firing so it would not threaten Japan's security, according to the Japanese government.
Some observers doubted China chose the southern path in response to Tokyo's request, saying the northern route may have been designated only to "intimidate" Japan.
The Japanese government source said Tokyo needed to reflect on the latest case, noting that it had, to some extent, been caught off guard by China's "cunning tactics." The missile launch came amid heightened Sino-Japanese tensions over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments on Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo told reporters Wednesday the test-fired missile was most likely the Julang-2, a submarine-launched ballistic missile with intercontinental range, rather than the longer-range Julang-3, which is potentially capable of reaching the continental United States. He said the assessment was based on multiple intelligence sources.
