TOKYO - In 2025, the number of births in Japan fell for the tenth consecutive year, reaching a record low of 671,236. Since the size of the young population is not expected to increase in the coming years, this downward trend in births is likely to persist.
However, the rate of decline slowed slightly due to the increase over the previous year in the number of births by women in their early 30s. It is unclear whether this pattern will continue.
Meanwhile, the total fertility rate (TFR), which is defined as the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, increased in 13 prefectures over the previous year. Further analysis is needed to determine whether the TFR will shift further upward in many prefectures in the future.
In addition, the number of marriages has increased for the second consecutive year. This may be a resurgence following the COVID-19 outbreak, which led to a decrease in marriages due to the fewer opportunities for people to meet. However, this increase is not large enough to dramatically alter the current declining trend in births.
Japan's population decline is primarily the result of an aging population and prolonged low TFRs, and this situation is unlikely to change in the short term. Absent the emergence of major social shifts, such as the acceptance of millions of immigrants annually, Japan's population will continue to decline in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, we need to adapt our societal institutions to accommodate both a declining population and an aging society with a low TFR.
Japan's national and local governments have introduced measures to prepare for these expected developments. One such step was the national government's introduction of the Long-Term Care Insurance System in 2000.
Local governments have also gradually taken steps to cope with these trends through their own measures, such as municipal mergers and the consolidation or closure of public schools.
As part of the policy titled "Countermeasures Against the Declining Birth Rate," the national government has introduced many major programs, including increasing the amount of the child allowance and encouraging the use of parental leave. However, I disagree with the government's assertion that "the period leading up to the 2030s is our last chance to reverse the declining birth rate." This is typical crisis rhetoric.
I also have serious concerns about categorizing these programs under this policy name. This is because the phrase may create a kind of stress, making people feel that they "must have children."
Many young people, I believe, are feeling anxiety about the future and are reluctant to get married and have children. Considering that it takes at least 20 years from birth for a child to grow up and start working, this anxiety and hesitation is understandable. This is precisely why the national and local governments need to establish and promote additional support programs to empower people's life and explain these programs thoroughly. This must be done in a way that encourages people's confidence in their own lives.
For example, income growth should be promoted through measures such as changes to the tax and social security systems, as well as business-targeted initiatives. In this context, raising the real income levels of low- and middle-income earners is particularly essential. The refundable tax credit system currently under discussion in the national Diet could contribute to creating a more child-friendly society.
Ideally, the national and local governments should support and encourage every individual through their policies, regardless of whether they have children. Everyone's life deserves respect, no matter what path they take. We must never forget that people without children also contribute in various ways to raising children as members of society, and that those children will support all of us in the future.
(Masakazu Yamauchi was born in Nagasaki Prefecture in 1973. After serving as a senior researcher at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, he assumed his current post as a professor at Waseda University in 2022. He specializes in population geography.)
