TOKYO - The Japanese government has already lodged a protest over Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Etorofu Island in the Northern Territories, but if the response is limited to protest alone, Russia has little incentive to reconsider its actions. On the other hand, swinging to symbolic retaliation such as a complete halt to dialogue would not serve Japan's interests. What matters is making Russia recognize that pressuring Japan in the Northern Territories cannot change Japan's policy.
From that perspective, the government should examine what signals Japan's Russia policy in recent years has sent to Moscow. In diplomacy, not only one's intent but also the other side's perceptions matter. Japan should reflect on whether a series of moves it had taken could have been seen as a sign that Tokyo was rushing to normalize relations with Moscow.
Going forward, there is no need to stop necessary dialogue over practical topics such as visits by former island residents to family graves, fisheries and protection of Japanese nationals and companies. However, Japan should refrain from outreach that gives the impression it is hurrying to normalize ties. At the same time, Japan and other Group of Seven countries must increase efforts against sanctions evasion, the "shadow fleet" Russia uses for crude oil exports, and the inflow of goods into Russia's defense industry. Japan must also demonstrate that no matter how Russia tries to shake it, Japan will not bend its principles.
In that sense as well, support for Ukraine should be strengthened where possible. But there is no need to emphasize it as a countermeasure to Putin's Etorofu visit. Precisely because of Putin's visit, Japan should reaffirm the principles of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity and not accepting changes to the status quo by force, positioning support for Ukraine as an extension of that stance.
What must be avoided most is weakening support for Ukraine and easing sanctions on Russia under the pretext of prioritizing the Northern Territories issue. In 2022, Russia halted peace treaty talks with Japan and other channels citing Tokyo's sanctions, already using the territorial issue as a tool to pressure Japan's Ukraine policy. If Japan yields now, it could hand the Putin administration a successful precedent: applying pressure over the Northern Territories can move Japan in other policy areas. Moreover, if Japan comes to be seen as a country that makes concessions in other policy fields when pressured over territorial issues, it could invite similar pressure from other countries. That would not strengthen Japan's deterrence but instead increase its vulnerability.
The top concrete step should be support for Ukraine with this winter in mind. Russia has repeatedly attacked civilian infrastructure such as power generation and transmission facilities. Japan has supported Ukraine with generators, transformer equipment, emergency power supplies, and medical and heating-related materials. Expanding such assistance to protect Ukrainians' lives and livelihoods also has strategic meaning in preventing Russia from using military force to bend other countries' political will.
The Japanese government needs to move away from treating an early resumption of territorial negotiations itself as the top priority of its Russia diplomacy, while maintaining the long-term goal of resolving the Northern Territories issue and concluding a peace treaty. Japan should shift its diplomacy toward Russia from rushing to restart territorial talks to remaining unshaken even under coercion but without undermining a future settlement on the territorial issues. Japan should judge success not by contact or dialogue itself but by whether Japan preserves its freedom of policy choice and whether it ensures Russia's pressure has no impact on Tokyo's policy. What Japan must show now is strategic consistency so that it does not allow Russia to use the Northern Territories issue any further as leverage to pressure Japan.
(Atsuko Higashino, born in 1971, has served as a professor at the University of Tsukuba since 2022 specializing in international politics in Europe. She graduated from Keio University and earned a doctorate in political science from the University of Birmingham.)
