TOKYO - Japan's left-leaning opposition parties are at a crossroads 81 years after World War II, struggling to turn the tide as anti-war, anti-nuclear messaging alone becomes less resonant with voters amid geopolitical risks and economic hardships.
The parties have failed to counter the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, emboldened by its sweeping general election win six months ago, as it has pursued a conservative agenda ranging from eased rules on the export of defense equipment to a national flag desecration law and cementing a male-only imperial succession through a legal revision.
Takaichi's decision to lower the consumption tax on food for two years has also complicated opposition parties' efforts to distinguish themselves on economic issues, as the ruling camp has pursued broadly similar policies to address voter concerns over the cost of living.
The significantly weakened left-leaning opposition camp faces tough choices on whether to soften commitments to postwar pacifist ideals and project new identities by putting more voter-friendly policies at the forefront, according to political analysts.
The parties "need a new narrative and it will probably have to come from the economy," Yuri Kono, a political science professor at Hosei University said, arguing that the ideology of left-wing Japanese parties steeped in pacifist and anti-nuclear politics has "passed its expiry date."
After the February election made the Centrist Reform Alliance the smallest main opposition in the House of Representatives in the postwar era, uncertainty remains over its future, as talks with two opposition parties on whether and how to join forces drag on.
Traditional left-wing parties -- the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party -- have yet to recover from the heavy blows they suffered in the election.
While Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled almost without interruption since 1955, is a broad church that has at times pursued center-left policies, including on health care and welfare, the opposition to its left has "instead grounded its identity in anti-war issues and emotional appeals that have weakened as memories have faded," Kono said.
The CRA has only 49 seats in the 465-member lower house, down by from 167 before the election. The JCP has four and the former Reiwa Shinsengumi populist left party has only one, both down from eight.
The right-leaning Democratic Party for the People, conversely, has gained momentum in recent years by focusing on raising net incomes, and the new Team Mirai party fared well in the recent general election by opposing consumption tax cuts.
Kono said the examples of the DPP and Team Mirai suggest parties on the left could focus on economic policies to redistribute wealth, while adding they would likely have to come from a new political organization rather than existing parties.
While Takaichi has seen public support for her Cabinet slip since the election, a recent Kyodo News poll showed about 36 percent of respondents supported her party.
The DPP garnered the most support among the opposition at 7 percent, followed by Team Mirai, the Sanseito party, and the CRA. Among the notable left-wing parties, the JCP secured around 4 percent and Reiwa had less than 2 percent.
An indication of the future direction of populist opposition politics could come from the yet unnamed party founded by Hiroyuki Nishimura, the outspoken internet entrepreneur who created message board 2channel, and lawmaker Fusaho Izumi, a former mayor whose family-focused policies reversed local population decline.
It plans to field candidates in the unified local elections in the next spring, which are increasingly seen as a test of Takaichi's popularity and opposition parties' ability to reassert themselves.
"Based on the figures involved, the new party could seek an anti-establishment approach that treats politics as a service to voters, rather than of values around which they can rally," said Toru Yoshida, professor of politics at Doshisha University, noting it could fit a trend of support for apolitical movements.
A shared sense of alarm about Takaichi's move to cut lower house seats selected under proportional representation led to a rare joint boycott of Diet deliberations by opposition parties. But the opposition remains fragmented, especially as the CRA's upper house merger talks remain uncertain, benefiting the ruling camp.
"(The CRA) is at a stage even before they can start thinking about how to construct a political conflict or define their opposition," Yoshida said.
Takaichi is also aiming to revise the postwar pacifist Constitution, a goal even her mentor Shinzo Abe, the country's longest-serving prime minister, could not achieve during his lifetime. It could be a destabilizing moment for left-leaning parties.
At the same time, analysts said it may present an opposition party with space to seize the narrative on economic policies.
Yoshida pointed to Abe's first short stint between 2006 and 2007, when his support plunged in part due to his pursuit of policies to break from the postwar regime. His return to power in 2012 with a focus on boosting the deflation-mired economy saw him remain at the helm until 2020.
"We may be entering an inflection point. Will (Takaichi) follow the path of Abe's second administration, which would cycle from economic policy to issues such as national security to ensure its longevity, or end up going down the path of his first?" Yoshida asked.
