TOKYO - Japan is expecting its heavy dependence on Chinese tourists to lessen this summer travel season, counting on visitors from other Asian countries and European travelers to make up for sluggish Chinese demand amid worsening bilateral diplomatic ties.
The number of Chinese visitors to Japan in the first six months of this year dived 56.4 percent from a year earlier, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's contentious remarks in parliament last year over how Japan might respond to a crisis over Taiwan took its toll. China, angered by the remarks, advised its citizens not to travel to Japan and ramped up economic pressure.
The sharp decline in Chinese travelers, however, had only a limited impact on total tourist numbers. Japan received an estimated 21.08 million foreign visitors from January to June, down 2.0 percent from the same period of 2025 when the number hit a record.
Apparently aided by a weak yen, steady growth in visitors from South Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States helped offset some of the decline in Chinese tourists, according to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization.
The preliminary amount of spending by foreign visitors on accommodation and shopping in Japan grew by 1.3 percent to 4.85 trillion yen ($30.4 billion), hitting a new record high on a first-half basis.
Ryo Nishikawa, an associate professor versed in tourism policy at Rikkyo University, points out that the "diversification" of visitors is progressing. "We are beginning to see (tourism) maintaining its momentum without depending on China."
Although cancellations by European visitors poured in immediately after the situation in the Middle East worsened earlier this year, they accounted for only "a small percentage" of total foreign visitors, according to Nishikawa.
In Fukuoka Prefecture, southwestern Japan, about 10 million people a year from other parts of Japan and abroad visit Dazaifu Tenmangu, a Shinto shrine and major tourist draw.
About 90 percent of foreign visitors to the shrine come from South Korea and Taiwan. "I don't feel the number of visitors is changing," Keiya Yamaguchi, a priest said.
Against the backdrop of the continued inbound tourism boom, the number of Japanese going overseas has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
The number of overseas travelers surpassed 20 million in 2019, but it tanked after the COVID-19 pandemic and totaled 14.73 million in 2025. For the first half of this year, the number stood at 6.94 million.
According to a survey conducted by major travel agency JTB Corp., the number of Japanese travelers going overseas is estimated to decrease 8.8 percent from a year earlier to 2.17 million for this summer holiday season.
The estimated first drop in six years comes as Japanese households grapple with rising prices, a weak yen that makes overseas trips costlier, and higher fuel surcharges due to soaring aviation fuel costs.
The Japanese government, for its part, is seeking to encourage more overseas travel by reducing passport application fees from July.
The sluggish recovery in demand for overseas trips is raising concern, because if the trend continues, it may threaten the survival of existing international flights, according to Nishikawa.
He said regional airports will likely feel more of the pinch. "Local governments must come up with strategies to spur demand (for travel) among local people," he said.
