TOKYO - The Russia-Ukraine war has transformed drones into defining weapons of modern warfare, prompting Japan to rethink defense procurement and production amid security challenges from regional powers such as China and North Korea.
Widely regarded by military analysts as the world's first full-scale drone war, the conflict has shown how inexpensive unmanned aircraft can destroy multimillion-dollar tanks and strike deep behind enemy lines.
It has also highlighted the importance of mass production, rapid innovation and domestic manufacturing -- lessons now reshaping Japan's defense strategy.
Beyond Ukraine, the growing use of unmanned systems and artificial intelligence in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has further underscored how these technologies are changing modern warfare.
Japan is developing the SHIELD system, a multilayered defense network using thousands of unmanned systems to intercept enemy naval vessels and amphibious assault forces before they can land on Japanese shores. SHIELD stands for synchronized, hybrid, integrated and enhanced littoral defense.
Of the Defense Ministry's record 9.04 trillion yen ($55 billion) budget for fiscal 2026, 100.1 billion yen has been earmarked for building the system.
During a visit to drone maker Prodrone Co. in Nagoya in May, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stressed the need to accelerate the development of Japan's unmanned capabilities.
"Strengthening unmanned defense capabilities that reduce personnel losses, enable sustained operations and provide asymmetric advantages has become an urgent priority for Japan," Koizumi said.
He also highlighted the growing importance of dual-use technologies as the distinction between civilian and military applications continues to blur.
Defense analysts say the Russia-Ukraine conflict has forced governments to rethink not only how wars are fought but also how they can be deterred or ended quickly if deterrence fails.
"The debate has focused overwhelmingly on preventing war rather than ending it quickly if it ever breaks out," noted Naoaki Hidani, a senior fellow at Dentsu Soken Inc.'s Center for Economic Security Research.
"Even if Japan has no intention of going to war, it could still be drawn into one, and actions it does not view as provocative may be seen differently by others."
Hidani said defense planning should begin with political objectives rather than simply preparing to respond to attacks.
"When I spoke with Taiwanese defense experts, they were already considering what it would take to bring a conflict to an end. Japan should be doing the same," he said.
The Russia-Ukraine war has also underscored that industrial capacity can be as decisive as military capability.
Koizumi noted in May that the United States plans to acquire around a million drones in a few years, while Russia and Ukraine are procuring an estimated five to seven million annually.
The scale of that demand has renewed interest in expanding Japan's domestic drone industry, which remains relatively small despite the country's technological strength.
Manabu Shimamoto, integrated crisis general manager at the Japan UAS Industrial Development Association, said Japan needs more than a simple expansion of drone inventories.
"Tanks once served as a deterrent. Today, they are no longer enough. But drones can make an enemy think twice before attacking," he said. "Militaries that fail to develop drone capabilities risk falling behind."
Although Japan possesses advanced drone technology, countries such as Turkey have gained an edge through years of operational experience, while China dominates commercial production.
"Japan has a drone sector, but it has not yet become a true industry," said Shunsuke Toya, president and CEO of Prodrone.
Toya pointed out that smaller manufacturers can improve designs through rapid experimentation and short development cycles -- an approach Japanese officials describe as a "rapid innovation cycle."
"Chinese drone manufacturers dominate the global market largely because they operate under fewer regulatory constraints and generate enormous amounts of flight data," he said.
Toya added that Japan should pursue opportunities beyond military applications.
"Japan has the opportunity to make a significant contribution during postwar reconstruction in Ukraine, particularly in landmine detection and naval mine clearance."
Mine detection, logistics and infrastructure inspection are among the civilian applications expected to grow as drone technology evolves.
For Japan, the challenge is no longer simply acquiring more drones. Building the industrial base, technological expertise and strategic mindset needed to sustain them may prove just as important.
