TOKYO - Climate change has increased the likelihood of heat that could impair player performance and slow match tempo for 97 of 104 matches at the upcoming World Cup, a nonprofit climate research and communications group said earlier this month.
Climate Central examined the odds of temperatures exceeding 28 C, a threshold linked to declines in player performance, such as decreased sprint frequency and slower recovery times. It said that the heat will threaten the safety of athletes and fans, as well as impact the quality of the game at the June 11-July 19 football event hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
The analysis compared current climate conditions influenced by human-caused climate change with a counterfactual world without climate change to determine how global warming alters the likelihood of performance-impairing heat during a match.
Japan's national team is likely to experience heat-related issues during the group stage. There is an estimated 95 percent chance of this occurring during the Sunday match against the Netherlands in Dallas, Texas; a 79 percent chance during the June 20 match against Tunisia in Monterrey, Mexico; and a 98 percent chance during the June 25 match against Sweden in Dallas.
The figures in all three cases are higher than they would be in a scenario without climate change.
According to the analysis, among all World Cup matches, climate change most boosted the odds of performance-impairing heat for the June 26 match in Guadalajara, Mexico, between Uruguay and Spain -- increasing the odds by 37 percentage points to 70 percent.
"Playing in temperatures above 28 C changes the game -- affecting tactics, tempo and overall quality," said Mike Tipton, a professor at the University of Portsmouth and a member of the Climate Central analysis team. "We see reduced intensity, less sprinting and potentially fewer chances being created."
Morten Thorsby, a player on the Norwegian national team, said, "This analysis makes clear that rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the game itself."
"When heat impacts sprinting, recovery and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played -- and not for the better," he added.
